As of May 5, 2025
Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated following a devastating militant attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians, including women and children. India has blamed Pakistan-based terrorist organizations for orchestrating the attack. Pakistan has denied involvement, warning against “unfounded provocations.”
Addressing the Regional Dialogue 2025 in Islamabad today, Dar said Pakistan believed the Pahalgam attack was part of an effort to “divert attention” from India’s internal challenges, adding that it could be “self-choreographed”.
“We believe that what has happened is to divert attention — I am talking of Pahalgam — from India’s internal challenges, state-sponsored terrorism, the ongoing human rights violations in the Indian Illegally Occupied Kashmir, and to gain narrow domestic political objectives,”
“This brinkmanship carries consequences that extend far beyond India’s borders,” the deputy PM warned, calling India’s actions “unilateral, politically-motivated and highly provocative”.
India and Pakistan have significantly upgraded their military capabilities since the nuclear-armed neighbours clashed in 2019, posing increased risks of escalation even in a limited conflict.
Pakistan says India plans a military incursion after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for a deadly attack on domestic tourists in Indian Kashmir last month. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to punish the backers of the attack “beyond their imagination”.
In a retaliatory move, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty—an agreement considered a critical lifeline for water-sharing between the two countries since 1960. Engineers began sediment-flushing operations at key hydroelectric projects, prompting alarm from Pakistan, which considers such actions potentially hostile. Experts warn that interference with downstream flow could constitute a breach of international law and may be interpreted by Pakistan as an act of war.
Military readiness has increased on both sides of the border. Indian and Pakistani fighter jets have violated each other’s airspace multiple times in the past 48 hours. Additionally, Pakistan reported it shot down two Indian surveillance drones near the Line of Control. Both countries have ramped up troop deployment in border regions, and Pakistan has test-fired a Ghaznavi missile, claiming it was part of scheduled drills. India, meanwhile, has launched surveillance operations and mass detentions in Jammu and Kashmir, with over 2,000 individuals detained and homes of suspected militants demolished.
The conflict has begun to ripple beyond the subcontinent. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, arrived in Islamabad offering to mediate. Pakistan has welcomed the move, signaling openness to diplomatic dialogue. India has yet to respond officially, though sources indicate discussions are ongoing within its Ministry of External Affairs. Meanwhile, the UN Security Council is holding a closed-door emergency session today to address the rising instability in South Asia.
Earlier today, China reaffirmed its support for Pakistan amid escalation with India as President Asif Ali Zardari met with Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan Jiang Zaidong.The two discussed matters of bilateral importance, with a particular focus on the ongoing situation between Pakistan and India in the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack.The Chinese ambassador reaffirmed the “enduring and time-tested friendship between China and Pakistan”, describing the relationship as one of “ironclad brothers” who have always supported each other in challenging times.He thanked Zardari for sharing Pakistan’s perspective, and emphasised that China would always support its ally to achieve the common desire of both countries to secure peace and stability in South Asia.
Airlines including Lufthansa, Air France, and Singapore Airlines have rerouted flights to avoid Pakistani airspace. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has issued a warning to carriers operating in the region. Markets have shown signs of volatility, with defense stocks surging and regional currencies dipping.
Russia, the United States, and China have expressed “deep concern.” The Kremlin, in a public statement, urged both nations to “de-escalate immediately and return to dialogue.” The White House has reportedly opened back-channel communications with both New Delhi and Islamabad.
Domestically, Pakistan is facing additional instability, as separatist insurgents from the Balochistan Liberation Army have reportedly taken control of Mangocher city in Kalat district. The Pakistani Army has suffered significant casualties, further straining the nation’s internal security capacity.
Economic analysts, including Moody’s, have warned that a prolonged standoff could severely damage Pakistan’s already struggling economy, which is more vulnerable than India’s. With foreign investment already waning, and inflation rising, Pakistan faces the twin pressures of external threat and internal unrest.
As diplomatic efforts intensify, the world watches anxiously. Both nuclear-armed nations have fought multiple wars since independence, and even a limited conflict could have catastrophic consequences. The coming days will be critical in determining whether reason and diplomacy prevail—or if the region descends further into confrontation.
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